RG Cruz, ABS-CBN News
Posted at 23 Mar 2016 01:59 PM | Updated as of 24 Mar 2016 06:47 AM
Duterte leads among urban voters
Poe on top among women, INC voters
MANILA - Presidential preference survey frontrunners Senator Grace Poe and Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte split key demographics in the latest ABS-CBN survey by Pulse Asia.
Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Tabunda told ABS-CBN that in the March 8 - 13, 2016 survey, Duterte got substantial support from urban voters while Senator Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay and Mar Roxas drew support from rural voters.
"Well I think it's very striking that 3 of the 4 strong presidential candidates have a sizable support in the rural areas… But he (Duterte) has larger percentage of the urban areas -- 31% of urban voters and only 21% of rural voters.
''There's a skew. Urban voters tend to like Mayor Duterte. I think it's because -- part of it is his [anti-crime] advocacy, the headway he made against crime in Davao City. It's basically an urban problem."
Among the 1,660 urban respondents, 31% picked Duterte; 27% Poe; 21% Binay; 13 % Roxas; and 3% Santiago.
Among the 2,340 rural respondents, 25% picked Poe; 25% Roxas; 22% Binay; 21% Duterte; and 2% Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago.
MALE, FEMALE VOTE
Poe took the female vote, while Duterte had the male vote. Among males, 29% picked Duterte; 23% Poe; 21% Binay, 20% Roxas; and 3% Santiago.
Among females, 29% picked Poe; 23% Binay; 21% Duterte; 20% Roxas; and 2% Santiago.
''Right now, in this particular wave or round, we're seeing the female voters tending to vote more for Grace and the male voters for Duterte,'' she said.
''So there is this female-male favor for the two candidates. In the last round, Poe had the same proportion and same voting percentage for both male and female. We were not seeing that more females were going for her."
The poll also tracked the popularity of the candidates in the religious groups.
Of the 3,339 Roman Catholic respondents, 27% picked Poe; 24% Duterte; 22% Binay; 20% Roxas; and 3% Santiago. Catholics don't practice bloc voting.
On the other hand, 84 of the respondents were members of Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), which is known for its bloc voting practice.
Among the INC respondents, 38% picked Poe; 21% Binay; 12% Duterte; 8% Roxas; and 3% Santiago. This, however, was taken with no reports yet of an endorsement by the INC leadership of a particular bet.
A total of 159 respondents were Muslims. Thirty-two percent of them picked Duterte; 23% Roxas; 21% Binay; and 18% Poe.
Tabunda, however, doesn't want to read too much into these numbers. "For the religious groups right now, because they're the biggest group, the Catholics are of course going for Senator Poe and Mayor Duterte and in the case of INC, although it's a small sample, if they are allowed to vote for themselves, they are going for Sen. Poe and VP Binay. Once their religious leaders endorse a particular candidate, that would change."
Tabunda added that in a close election, bloc voting will matter.
''Bloc voting is crucial in a close election. You need every single percentage point you can get, even half-percentage point, in terms of number of votes,'' she said.
The March 8-13 survey was conducted using face-to-face interviews with 4,000 respondents nationwide. It has a ± 1.5% error margin at the 95% confidence level.
Poe regains solo lead in ABS-CBN Pulse Asia survey
Christian V. Esguerra, ABS-CBN News
Posted at 01 Apr 2016 09:47 AM | Updated as of 01 Apr 2016 12:02 PM
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MANILA - The anticipated "bounce" in Sen. Grace Poe’s numbers to be triggered supposedly by the favorable ruling she had received from the Supreme Court has yet to show.
The latest ABS-CBN survey conducted by Pulse Asia showed the neophyte senator reclaiming solo lead among prospective winners in the May presidential election.
Poe got 28 percent in the March 15-20 survey, which covered 4,000 registered voters with biometrics nationwide. It had an error margin of plus minus 1.5 percent.
But Poe's numbers were nowhere near what many of her supporters had expected—an increase of up to 10 percentage points—after she had hurdled questions over her citizenship and residency before the Supreme Court.
Valenzuela Mayor Rex Gatchalian, Poe's campaign spokesman, offered no possible reason why Poe's numbers did not increase dramatically in the two Pulse Asia surveys conducted after the Supreme Court ruling.
Gatchalian instead pointed out that Poe "remains in the lead."
"We will continue to work hard to build on this lead. As we amplify our message, more people will consolidate behind her candidacy," he told ABS-CBN News.
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, who had 24 percent, shared the second spot with Vice President Jejomar Binay, who got 23 percent.
Administration candidate Mar Roxas was third with 19 percent, while Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago was at distant fourth with 2 percent.
Duterte was statistically tied with Poe in the March 8-13 Pulse Asia survey, which was also commissioned by ABS-CBN.
Duterte catches up, ties Poe for lead: ABS-CBN survey
The latest survey was conducted a week after the Supreme Court ruling. It also came shortly after the second presidential debate, which supposedly gave voters a better perspective on the candidates.
Binay came under fire over the delay in that debate after he insisted on bringing documents with him on stage.
Row over rules: Why 2nd presidential debate was delayed
BATTLE FOR METRO MANILA
In the latest survey, Poe (31 percent) and Duterte (30 percent) were statistically tied for the top spot in the National Capital Region, a major election battleground in May because of its 6.2 million registered voters.
Poe was the clear winner in the rest of Luzon with 35 percent, while Roxas was the top choice in the Visayas with 37 percent. Duterte led Mindanao with 43 percent.
Poe (27 percent) and Duterte (25 percent) shared the lead among class D, the biggest voting bloc. They were also tied for first place among class ABC voters with 30 percent and 32 percent, respectively. Poe’s number was up from 22 percent in this voting bloc in the last survey.
Among class E, the top choices were Poe (30 percent) and Binay (28 percent).
As in the previous survey, Poe stood to benefit the most if any of the other presidential candidates quit the race.
Among those whose first choice was Binay, 39 percent would vote for Poe if he would opt not to run. She would also get the same percentage of votes among those whose first choice is Roxas, if he would no longer pursue his candidacy.
If Duterte would not run anymore, 33 percent of his votes would go to Poe. Twenty eight percent of Santiago’s votes would settle for Poe if Santiago no longer pursued her candidacy.
If Poe abandoned her presidential ambition, most of her votes (25 percent) would go to Binay, 22 percent to Roxas, and 20 percent to Duterte. Twelve percent of those voters said they would vote for no other candidate.
Among Roxas’ voters, 18 percent also said they would not go for another candidate should he decide not to run.
TIE FOR VP
The vice presidential race remained a close fight especially between Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sen. Francis Escudero, who were tied at first place with 25 percent apiece.
Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo was at second place with 21 percent, followed by Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano with 14 percent.
Sen. Gregorio Honasan had 5 percent, while Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV got 4 percent.
Marcos (43 percent) was the top choice in Metro Manila, while Robredo took the Visayas (34 percent). Marcos and Escudero were tied in the rest of Luzon with 32 percent and 29 percent, respectively.
Cayetano topped Mindanao with 28 percent.
In the senatorial race, seven administration candidates would make it to the Magic 12 if elections were held within the March 15-20 survey.
They were Senate President Franklin Drilon, former Sen. Francis Pangilinan, former Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Risa Hontiveros, Joel Villanueva, Leila De Lima, and Sen. Ralph Recto.
Sen. Vicente Sotto III, who belongs to Poe’s ticket, shared the lead with Drilon.
Others in the winning circle were former Senators Juan Miguel Zubiri and Richard Gordon, Rep. Manny Pacquiao, and Sen. Sergio Osmeña III.